Written By Alhaji K. Tarawally, PhD
International Relations Specialist
A wave of harsh rule is spreading across Africa, with military takeovers, sham elections, broken rules, and brutal dictators tearing down the weak progress toward democracy. It’s like a comeback of the worst times in the 20th century—the military is grabbing power, opposition leaders are being jailed or shut up, and voting is being twisted to lock in one-person control.
At the heart of this mess is the big betrayal by the United Kingdom and the United States. Their sharp cuts to foreign aid, stricter immigration rules, new trade barriers, and pullbacks from diplomacy have created a massive gap in Africa’s democracy. This space is being filled fast by Russia and China, who are stirring up trouble from the Sahel region to Central Africa—a clear example is the military takeover in Gabon this October.
The signs of this chaos are evident in a growing zone of unstable countries. Since 2021, military grabs have spiked, with rulers in Niger, Burkina Faso, Mali, and Guinea kicking out Western troops and ignoring global demands to bring back democracy. In Niger, junta leader Abdourahamane Tchiani forced out French and American forces in 2023 and turned to Russian hired guns. Burkina Faso’s Captain Ibrahim Traoré has crushed protests, while Russian weapon sales jumped 150 percent this year, according to the Stockholm International Peace Research Institute.
Mali’s military leaders have strengthened ties with Moscow, increasing gold sales to Russia by 40 percent by controlling mining areas. Guinea’s Colonel Mamady Doumbouya has cracked down on critics, backed by over $2 billion in Chinese loans for road and building projects in 2025. Most recently, in Gabon, General Brice Oligui Nguema’s forces staged a takeover on October 15, 2025, overthrowing the temporary government over claims of cheating—a move triggered by Britain’s quick cut of a £50 million aid package for good government and the U.S. pulling its anti-terror experts, letting Russian agents move in right away.
Elections have become mere façades for strongman rule. In Chad, Mahamat Déby’s win in May 2025—with 61 percent of the vote—was marred by allegations of voter blocking and boycotts, which were condemned by the African Union but prevented from being addressed by the UN due to Russian and Chinese vetoes. Zimbabwe’s President Emmerson Mnangagwa held onto power in August through rigged turnout and cheating, with Chinese spy tech reportedly used to watch critics, as reported by Amnesty International. The same issues are evident in Cameroon and Tanzania, where leaders such as Paul Biya and Samia Suluhu Hassan have allegedly rigged votes, resulting in a 25 percent decline in fair elections since 2020, according to Freedom House reports.
This breakdown of stability has accelerated due to the West’s step back, particularly Britain’s budget cuts following Brexit, and the U.S. shift to focusing solely on itself. For years, British and American aid were tools to build influence, supporting growth and democratic values. However, Britain’s foreign aid office has reduced its budget by 30 percent from 2019 levels, down to £11.6 billion by 2025, with the impact being most pronounced in Africa: clean water projects have decreased by 45 percent, girls’ education by 60 percent, and healthcare by 35 percent. Oxfam says this will leave five million kids without school by 2026, pushing many into child work or extreme groups. The U.S., under pressure from both parties, slashed $8 billion from African programs in 2025, including $1.2 billion for anti-terror aid in the Sahel—a cut that the World Bank ties to poverty hitting 100 million more Africans and growth in sub-Saharan Africa stuck at 2.5 percent, half of what it was before 2020.
The results are deep and widespread. Humanitarian disasters have worsened, with 45 million people in the Sahel facing severe food shortages—a 20 percent increase from 2024, according to the United Nations refugee agency—as aid gaps allow conflicts to spread. On the economic side, Chinese debt has trapped countries, with African nations owing Beijing $150 billion by mid-2025, according to the China Africa Research Initiative, leading to losses, such as those in Zambia’s copper mines. Migration has exploded, with 2.5 million new refugees in 2025 overwhelming borders, while recruiting for extreme groups like al-Qaeda branches has grown 30 percent. Worldwide, this chaos messes up supply chains, raising electric vehicle prices by 15 percent from cobalt shortages, and boosts cross-border crime, with Russian-backed fighters controlling 40 percent of West Africa’s gold to fund Moscow’s bigger plans.
This crisis reveals a broader global struggle for power, where the West’s retreat has accelerated a world in which authoritarian governments are increasingly gaining the upper hand. China’s Belt and Road program has dumped $200 billion into African roads and projects over 12 years, locking in access to key minerals like cobalt—60 percent of the world’s supply from the Democratic Republic of Congo—through loans that ignore human rights and prop up needy rulers, like Gabon’s post-takeover oil deals to Chinese companies. Russia’s style is more about force, with the country sending 5,000 hired fighters from the Wagner Group (now known as the Africa Corps) to 10 countries in search of resources such as gold, diamonds, and uranium, according to a 2025 report by the Atlantic Council. Fake news campaigns hit 100 million Africans a month through online troll operations, spreading anti-West hate, just like in Sudan and the Central African Republic.
Without Britain and America, groups like the United Nations are at a standstill, with Russia and China blocking 15 Africa-related decisions since 2021. This is part of a larger battle: As the West looks inward—with Britain’s Brexit isolation and America’s “America First” approach—Beijing and Moscow are building teams to challenge NATO and the dollar’s control. Africa’s 1.4 billion people and enormous resources make it a key.